The CISM_DX package, coordinated by the Knowledge Transfer Group, was released to the public during the Fall, 2004 AGU Meeting.
Recent CISM-Related Publications and Presentations by Knoweldge Transfer/Empirical Modeling Group
The Knowledge Transfer Group
The Knowledge Transfer (KT) group (group members) of CISM is based at the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at The University of Colorado has several roles [1] [2] as part of the CISM program. The CISM knowledge transfer plan is to promote the exchange of information, tools, and techniques between CISM and other communities, particularly the broader space science research community, the space weather specification and forecasting operational community, and the aerospace engineering and other user communities. The plan has three distinct components: transition of forecasting tools to NOAA/SEC; dissemination of community models to the scientific community; and training and interaction with industrial partners and government labs and agencies.

One of the initial goals of CISM is to integrate many of the community-developed empirical and semi-empirical space-weather models into a sun-to-Earth chain. Currently, we are at the early stages of this, and we have compiled a set of empirical models into a common framework in which they can be easily compared, integrated, and evaluated by members of industry, government, and the broader research community.

The principle goal of CISM is to create a physics-based numerical simulation model that describes the space environment from the Sun to the Earth. Another major goal of CISM is to provide a specification and forecast tool for space weather prediction. As the physics-based models develop and improve in forecasting ability, they will be become the major part of the model chain that is used for forecasting space weather.


The Empirical Modeling Group
Creating optimal space weather forecasts requires the integration of a diverse set of modeling approaches. The Empirical Modeling (EM) group (group members) of CISM is based at the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at The University of Colorado seeks to develop statistical and empirical models that can be used for space weather forecasting.

Empirical Models of the CISM Program:

The following models by CISM scientists are currently running in real--time:

Magnetospheric......... | Magnetospheric Energetic Electron Flux [1] [2] | Dst [1][2] |
Ionospheric................. | Geomagnetic Activity [1] |
Solar/Heliospheric.... | Solar-Wind Velocity [1] |

The following models are being integrated into the CISM_DX package for use as real-time sun-to-Earth predictors [1].

Magnetospheric......... | Magnetospheric Energetic Electron Flux | External Field |
Ionospheric................. | Surface |dB/dt| | Ap index | Surface Field |
Solar/Heliospheric.... | Solar-Wind Velocity | L1-Earth Propagation |


Physics-Based Models of the CISM Program:
These physics-based models are currently being integrated into a sun-to-Earth chain and will eventually be used for forecast and specification.

Magnetospheric at Dartmouth College
Ionospheric at Dartmouth College
Upper Atmosphere and Ionosphere at NCAR
Solar/Heliospheric at UC Berkeley


Recent CISM-Related Publications by KT/EM Members
  • Baker, D.N., How to cope with space weather, Science, 297, 30 Aug 2002.
  • Baker, D.N., A Price Science can Afford, SpaceNews, June 2, 2003, p. 16, 2003.
  • Baker, D.N., Specifying and Forecasting Space Weather Threats to Human Technology, Proceedings of ESPRIT Workshop, in press, 2003.
  • Baker, D.N., and X. Li, Relativistic electron flux enhancements during strong geomagnetic activity, Geophys. Monograph, in press, 2003.
  • Baker, D.N., S.G. Kanekal, and J.B. Blake, Characterizing the Earths Outer Van Allen zone using the Radiation Belt Content (RBC) Index, Space Weather, submitted, 2003.
  • Li, X., T.E. Sarris, D.N. Baker, W.K. Peterson, and H.J. Singer, Simulation of energetic particle injections associated with a substorm on August 27, 2001, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, (1), doi: 10.1029/2002GLO15967, 2003. [.pdf]
  • Li, X., D.N. Baker, S. Elkington, M. Temerin, et al., Energetic particle injections in the inner magnetosphere as a response to an interplanetary shock, J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys., 65, 233-244, 2003. [.pdf]
  • Li, X., D.N. Baker, D. Larson, M. Temerin, and S.G. Kanekal, The Predictability of the Magnetosphere and Space Weather, EOS, Volume 84, Number 14, September 16, 2003. [.pdf]
  • Li, X., Variations of 0.7-6.0 MeV Electrons at Geosynchronous Orbit as a Function of Solar Wind, submitted to {\sl Space Weather}, 2003. [.pdf]
  • McPherron, R. L., and G. Siscoe, Probabilistic Forecasting of Geomagnetic Indices Using Solar Wind "Air Mass" Analysis, Space Weather, in press, 2003.
  • Rigler, E.J., D.N. Baker, R.S. Weigel, D. Vassiliadis, and A.J. Klimas, Adaptive Linear Prediction of Radiation Belt Electrons Using the Kalman Filter, (Accepted to Space Weather), 2003. [.pdf]
  • Rigler, E.J., D.N. Baker, R.S. Weigel, and D. Vassiliadis, Solar Wind-Driven Electron Radiation Belt Response Functions at 100-minute time scales, (Accepted to Advances in Space Research), 2003 [.pdf]
  • Vassiliadis D, A.J. Klimas, R.S. Weigel, D.N. Baker, E.J. Rigler, S.G. Kanekal , T. Nagai, S.F. Fung, R.W.H. Friedel, T.E. Cayton, Structure of Earth's outer radiation belt inferred from long-term electron flux dynamics, {\it Geophys. Res. Lett. 30}, 19, 2015, 2003. [.pdf]
  • Vassiliadis, D., A.J. Klimas, S.G. Kanekal, D.N. Baker, and R.S. Weigel, Long-Term Solar-Cycle, and Seasonal Response of Magnetospheric Energetic Electrons to the Solar Wind Speed, {\it J. Geophys. Res, 107}, doi:10.1029/2001JA000506, 2002. [.pdf]
  • Vassiliadis, D., R.S. Weigel, A.J. Klimas, S.G. Kanekal, and R.A. Mewaldt, Modes of Energy Transfer Between the Solar Wind and the Inner Magnetosphere, {\it Phys. Plasmas, 10}, 2, 463-473, 2003. [.pdf]
  • Weigel, R.S., D. Vassiliadis, and A.J. Klimas, Precursor analysis and Prediction of Large--Amplitude Energetic Electron Events, {\it Accepted to Space Weather}, doi 10.1029/2003SW000023, 2003. [.pdf]
  • Weigel, R.S. and D.N. Baker, Probability Distribution Invariance of 1-Minute Auroral-Zone Geomagnetic Field Fluctuations, {\it Geophys. Res. Lett.}, doi:10.1029/2003GL018470, 2003.[.pdf]

Recent CISM-Related Presentations by KT/EM Members
  • Baker, D.N., Spacecraft operational anomalies and failures, CISM summer School, Boston, 5 Aug 2002.
  • Baker, D.N., Interactions with industry concerning space weather, CISM summer School, Boston, 6 Aug 2002.
  • Baker, D.N., The Solar and Space Physics Decadal Survey, Ball Aerospace, Invited talk, 6 Sept 2002.
  • Baker, D.N., Space Weather: Threats to human technology, Invited Lecture, Denver Museum of Nature and Science, Invited lecture presented to Star-gazers Weekend, Estes Park, CO, 7 Sept 2002.
  • Baker, D.N., The Solar and Space Physics Decadal Survey, NOAA Space Environment Center Seminar Series, Boulder, CO, 12 Sept 2002.
  • Baker, D.N., Space weather: Dealing with threats to human technology, APS Colloquium, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, 28 October 2002.
  • Baker, D.N., The Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling, presented at the Air Force Center for Integrated Space Forecasting, Space & Missiles Command, Peterson AFB, Colorado Springs, CO, 18 November 2002.
  • Baker, D.N., Introduction to Advanced Space and Power Systems, 2002 Core Technologies for Space Systems Conference, Colorado Springs, CO, 19 November 2002
  • Baker, D.N., et al. Tracing the Sun-earth connection: The solar particle chain in April 2002, Fall AGU meeting, San Francisco, CA 6-10 December 2002.
  • Baker, D.N., Next steps toward an integrated solar-terrestrial data environment: A summary view, San Francisco, CA 6-10 December 2002.
  • Baker, D.N., The Education and Public Outreach Committee of the AGU Space Physics and Aeronomy Section: Supporting AGU Scientists in their Educational Endeavors, San Francisco, CA 6-10 December 2002.
  • Baker, D.N., The recent past and future prospects for research at the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, Invited talk presented at the 50th Anniversary of the CU Space Program Celebration, CU Heritage Center, Boulder, CO 12 December 2002.
  • Baker, D.N., Relativistic electron enhancements and the radiation belts, Relativistic Electron Workshop, Maui, Hawaii, January 2003.
  • Baker, D.N., Knowledge Transfer and Empirical Modeling in CISM, Presentation at CISM Advisory Committee meeting, NCAR/Boulder, March 2003.
  • Baker, D.N., Space Weather: specifying and forecasting threats to human technology, Key Speaker: NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Effects of Space Weather on Human Technology, Rhodes, Greece, April 2003.
  • Baker, D.N.. et al., Magnetospheric Data Assimilation, Presented at GEM, Snomass, CO., June 2003. [.ppt]
  • Baker, D.N., Introduction to Space Weather, in Spring School on Space Weather, Lecture Notes, in press, Springer-Verlag, 2003. [.ppt]
  • Baker, D.N., E.J. Rigler, R.S. Weigel, and D.F. Moorer, Data assimilation in the radiation belts, Invited talk, Symp. GAII.05, XXII General Assembly, IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2003.
  • Elkington, S. R., Transport in the radiation belts and the role of magnetospheric ULF waves, invited tutorial at GEM, Snowmass, CO, June 2003.
  • Elkington, S. R., A. A. Chan, Y. Fei, ULF mode structure in the magnetosphere: MHD, at GEM, Snowmass, CO, June 2003.
  • Elkington, S. R., D. N. Baker, A. A. Chan, Y. Fei, M. J. Wiltberger, Radial transport in the outer zone: ULF waves and the diffusion equation, at IUGG General Assembly, Sapporo, Japan, July 2003 (invited).
  • Elkington, S. R., D. N. Baker, M. J. Wiltberger, A. A. Chan, Y. Fei, Coupling energy from the solar wind into the outer zone through ULF variations, at IUGG General Assembly, Sapporo, Japan, July 2003 (invited).
  • Elkington, S. R., D. N. Baker, M. J. Wiltberger, 31 March 2001 0630 substorm: Injection of energetic ions and electrons, at AGU Chapman Converence on Physics and Modelling of the Inner Magnetosphere, Helsinki, Finland, August 2003.
  • Elkington, S. R., A. A. Chan, Y. Fei, M. J. Wiltberger, Mode structure of ULF waves in the magnetosphere and implications for energetic particle acceleration, at International Space Environment Conference, Toulouse, France, August 2003.
  • Elkington, S. R., Energetic Particle transport in the magnetosphere, waves, and the plasmasphere, at HAO/NCAR, Boulder, Colorado, October 2003.
  • Li, X., Predictability of the Magnetosphere, at Space Environment Center, NOAA, Boulder, Colorado, on November 2003.
  • Li, X., M. Temerin, D. N. Baker, S. G. Kanekal; Forecast of radiation belt electrons and the Dst index, in Invited talk at the Advanced Research Workshop on Effects of Space Weather on Technology Infrastructure (ESPRIT), Rhodes, Greece, March 2003.
  • McPherron, R.L., Empirical studies of solar wind--magnetosphere coupling, Key Speaker: NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Effects of Space Weather on Human Technology, Rhodes, Greece, March 2003.
  • Rigler, E.J. et al., Presented at GEM, Snowmass, CO., June 2003. [.ppt]
  • Rigler, E.J. et al., Presented at the IUGG Conference, Sapporo Japan, August 2003. [.ppt]
  • Vassiliadis, D., Structure and dynamics of the outer radiation belt, Invited talk: NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Effects of Space Weather on Human Technology, Rhodes, Greece, March 2003.
  • Vassiliadis, D., et al., New results on the structure and dynamics of the outer radiation belt, EGS/AGU Joint assembly, April 2003.
  • Weigel, R.S. et al., Assessing the predictability of high-latitude geomagnetic measurements, Invited talk: NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Effects of Space Weather on Human Technology, Rhodes, Greece, April 2003.
  • Weigel, R.S. et al., The CISM Empirical Model Chain, Presented at Space Weather Week, May 2003, Boulder, CO. [.ppt]
  • Weigel, R.S. et al., Notes from the Data Assimilation Workshop, Presented at GEM, Snowmass, CO., June 2003. [.ppt]
  • Weigel, R.S., et al., Amplification of Short Time Scale Geomagnetic Fluctuations in the Auroral Zone, Presented at GEM, Snowmass, CO., June, 2003, [.pdf]
  • Weigel, R.S., Space Weather Modeling and Prediction, LASP Seminar, Boulder, CO, October 2003.
  • Weigel, R.S., Introduction to CISM, Space Weather Operations Tutorial, Space Environment Center, Boulder, CO, November 2003.

Knowledge Transfer and Empirical Modeling Group Members

Send Questions, Comments, or Suggestions to Michael.Gehmeyr at lasp.colorado.edu