Authors: M. Dryer; C.D. Fry; C.-C. Wu; T.R. Detman, Z. Smith; W. Sun, C.S.
Deehr, S.-I. Akasofu
Affiliation: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Space Environment
Center; Exploration Physics Intl., Inc., Huntsville, Alabama; NASA Goddard Space
Flight Center; CSPAR, University of Alabama, Huntsville; National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, Space Environment Center; University of Alaska,
Fairbanks
Our group has developed a real-time, observation-driven, solar wind modeling system for space weather predictions. In line with the recently announced national space policy thrust towards crew exploration of the solar system, we are extending our prediction regime to include the enroute interplanetary conditions and near the Mars environment. Our goal is to forecast, days in advance, the solar wind conditions, including IMF Bz, that drive space weather variability at Earth and other potential human destinations. Our system integrates models of the coupled photosphere-corona-solar wind regimes in order to characterize the inhomogeneous heliosphere to beyond 2 AU. More specifically, our system, which may be updated mid-course, predicts the evolution of co-rotating interaction regions and the propagation of interplanetary shocks and CMEs. These predictions also serve as inputs to energetic particle predictors and downstream space weather models. We are nearing completion of a real-time, forecast skill study spanning most of the present Solar Cycle 23. Our results indicate that the primary factors limiting our system's forecast skill are uncertainties in solar observations.