Solar-Induced Changes in Ozone

Authors: Marvin A. Geller (1), Sergei P. Smyshlyaev (2), and Xuelong Zhou (1)
Affiliations: 1) Institute for Terrestrial and Planetary Atmospheres, Stony Brook University, 2) Russian State Hydrometeorological University, St. Petersburg, Russia

It is of great interest to determine what changes in stratospheric ozone are due to changes in solar activity. In particular, general circulation model studies of solar UV changes on climate have shown a significant dependence on what solar-induced changes are used in the modeling. Determination of the solar-induced changes using observations are complicated by the fact that both major volcanic eruptions (El Chichon and Mt. Pinatubo) that have occurred during the satellite era for atmospheric sciences took place during the declining phase of the solar cycle. In this paper, we use a combination of a two-dimensional chemistry-transport modeling (using the SUNY-SPB model) and SAGE II observations (perhaps HALOE observations also) to estimate what the solar induced changes in stratospheric ozone actually are. We do this by comparing model and data assimilation results for stratospheric ozone under similar volcanic but for solar minimum and maximum conditions.