Phase Space
Reconstruction and Predictability of Spectral Solar Irradiance From SOLSTICE

Authors: Guoyong Wen (1,2)
and Robert F. Cahalan (1) ^{}

Affiliations: 1) NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center
(NASA/GSFC)

2) Goddard Earth Sciences
and

Observations
of TSI and SSI have been now made for a relatively long *T* is used to create a vector in *d *dimensions,

_{}

where _{} is observed spectral
irradiance at wavelength _{} and
*n*. The *T *is determined such that the average
mutual information between a *d *may
be determined by the false nearest neighbor analysis, or simply allowing _{} to
span 8~10 27-day rotation cycles. _{} is
a data point in *d *dimensions vector
space at
*n*. A simple way to predict the future of
the *L* is look at its past (_{}) to find the vector _{} that is nearest to the
latest _{} in the *d-*dimensional space. Values after *i’*th (_{}) are the predictions after
*L* (_{}.). We found the
spectral irradiance in some wavelengths can be reasonably predicted, while
other spectral irradiances are less predictable using this method. We further
examined the average mutual information of a spectral irradiance