Solar wind measurements can be used to predict the MeV electron radiation belt flux in the Earth's magnetosphere. The following figure shows the comparision of > 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES-11 and forecast results using real-time data from ACE as the only input for the standard radial diffusion equation. The radial diffusion equation is solved after making the diffusion coefficient a function of the solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field with appropriate boundary conditions. The solar wind velocity is the most important parameter in the variation of relativistic electron fluxes at geostationary orbit. The model is described in [Li, 2004] and [Li et al., 2001a]. For more discussions and the Dst index prediction, see [Temerin and Li, 2002; 2006; Li et al., 2001b]. These and other papers are available here.

Monthly plots of predicted MeV electron flux and solar wind data from 2000 to the present are available in this archive.

ACE real-time solar wind plots are available for the last 30 days and the last 96 hours.

Please note: these results are preliminary and are to be improved. For further information, contact Xinlin Li.

Time of model run:     2013/247-23:27:38
Last solar wind data:  2013/247-22:59:00
Prediction Efficiency for day 1 of 2-day model forecast:            0.647
Prediction Efficiency for day 1 of 2-day consistency forecast:      0.424
Prediction Efficiency for day 2 of 2-day model forecast:            0.210
Prediction Efficiency for day 2 of 2-day consistency forecast:     -0.411
These results are partially supported by NSF and NASA.