Solar wind measurements can be used to predict the MeV electron
radiation belt flux in the Earth's magnetosphere. The following
figure shows the comparision of > 2 MeV electron flux measured
by GOES-11 and forecast results using real-time data from ACE as
the only input for the standard radial diffusion equation. The
radial diffusion equation is solved after making the diffusion
coefficient a function of the solar wind velocity and
interplanetary magnetic field with appropriate boundary conditions.
The solar wind velocity is the most important parameter in the
variation of relativistic electron fluxes at geostationary orbit.
The model is described in
[Li, 2004] and
[Li et al., 2001a].
For more discussions and the
Dst index prediction, see [Temerin and Li, 2002; 2006; Li et al., 2001b].
These and other papers are available
Monthly plots of predicted MeV electron flux and solar wind data from 2000 to the present are available in this
ACE real-time solar wind plots are available for the
last 30 days
last 96 hours.
Please note: these results are preliminary and are to be improved.
For further information, contact Xinlin Li.
Time of model run: 2013/247-23:27:38
Last solar wind data: 2013/247-22:59:00
Prediction Efficiency for day 1 of 2-day model forecast: 0.647
Prediction Efficiency for day 1 of 2-day consistency forecast: 0.424
Prediction Efficiency for day 2 of 2-day model forecast: 0.210
Prediction Efficiency for day 2 of 2-day consistency forecast: -0.411
These results are partially supported by NSF and NASA.