Science Seminars

Exploring the Sun with the AFT model

Speaker: Lisa Upton (UCAR/HAO)
Date: Thursday, Aug 23, 2018
Time: 4:00 PM
Location: SPSC W120

Seminar Abstract:

Magnetism at the Sun’s surface is a lens with which we peer into the solar interior, it is the bridge to the solar atmosphere, and it is the key to unlocking the Sun-Earth system. The Advective Flux Transport (AFT) model is a surface flux transport model which uses the observed near surface flows to simulate the evolution of magnetic flux over the entire surface of the Sun.  In this talk, I will discuss the latest results from AFT in the context of improving Space Weather and Space Climate Predictions. I will show how AFT can be used to investigate regions of the Sun or time periods that are not well-observed with magnetic imagers. I will show how AFT can be used with synthetic data to simulate future missions (e.g., L5 or polar) and evaluate what kind of improvements these additional vantage points might provide. I will also discuss how AFT can be used to investigate the magnetic past of the Sun and create historical reconstructions.  Finally, I will use AFT to look to the future to provide a prediction for the strength of Solar Cycle 25 and what we might expect for the Cycle 24/25 minimum.